World Politics

[TheMightyEthan]

Yeah, I don't see the protesters backing down without either a major victory or a military intervention, and I don't see the Chinese letting them have a victory, so...

[Mal]

There is a lot to unpack about the protesters. It's kind of horrifyingly breathtaking.

 

I mean, can you imagine being someone from Hong Kong? You are working your asses off to afford to live in one of the most expensive and crowded places on Earth. You have a tiny ass apartment that makes a rundown house in bumfuck nowhere seems like a mansion. Through really no fault of your own, got returned (without a fight) to China on some fucked temporary two system, one country bullshit. Your living situation made increasingly worse by a government (they never really tried to modernize the city in a meaningful way which allowed China to build up a competing city just across the border. Hell, it's almost like they're in cahoots!) that is increasingly and now blatantly pro-Beijing which represents almost the polar opposite to your ideals. And there is nowhere to run. Through legal, emotional and financial reasons, they are stuck in Hong Kong. I think I am only scratching the surface.

 

I mean, there's little sympathy from the older folks in my family (who actually lived in Hong Kong) but I stand kind of differently.

 

Like sure, there could be Western (CIA and MI6) influences but you bet your asses there is Chinese influences. "But they (Hong Kongers) are Chinese!". I mean, sure, on paper as much as Chinese-Taiwanese (Taiwanese has native folks) are Chinese. There is a very obvious divide between all three (HK, Taiwan and China) and I am far from sure that HK and China are compatible (like how Taiwan and China are... because holy hell, they are different). What is best for China might not be good for Hong Kong. 

 

Man... what a shit show. Note, I do not condone violence. I also wish that the killer (who sparked this whole mess) is brought to justice. Again, what a shit show.

 

1 hour ago, TheMightyEthan said:

Yeah, I don't see the protesters backing down without either a major victory or a military intervention, and I don't see the Chinese letting them have a victory, so...

Communication blackout incoming. Then you kind of know what is going to happen. If China does it... it has shown that they have not changed AT ALL, in 30 years. They are the same demons from back then... and probably further in the past (Mao Zedong era).

Edited August 13, 2019 by Mal

[MetalCaveman]

RIP The Amazon forest.

[Mal]

Probably should cremate David Koch in that fire since his money (along with his brother) helped create this mess.

[TheMightyEthan]

Thank God he's dead.

[Mal]

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/politics/article/3025641/hong-kong-leader-carrie-lam-announce-formal-withdrawal

 

The extradition bill may be dead dead. So the protesters got that but at this point, it is beyond the extradition bill. There are the real issues of police brutality and shady dealings between the police, politicians and certain parts of the Triads/mob. 

 

Pretty much every could have been avoided if the bill was killed back in June. Now they have a bunch of cans of worms to deal with... 

 

Fuck the police. 

[TheMightyEthan]

Yeah, seems like it's too little, too late.

[Mr. GOH!]

ACAB, Mal. ACAB.

[Mal]

Oh, she was just proposing to withdraw it in October after recess. It ain't over until it's over. 

[TheMightyEthan]

It's almost like the Chinese government doesn't know how to deal with a society accustomed to civil rights and individual freedoms...

[MetalCaveman]

In Mexico, if you:

 

• Smuggle drugs/weapons
• Participate in human trafficking
• Kidnap, torture, execute, mutilate hundreds of people and dump the corpses in public spaces as a warning
• Set fire to bars/restaurants/other places because the owner didn't pay for "protection"

The president will respond with:

 

"Come on guys! That's not how we do things here, you know it! Think of your mothers, they must be so sad that their kids are doing this, we can do better right? OK we cool now? Yeah? Cool."

 

However, if you:

 

• Didn't pay your taxes
• Bought from a store that appears on a blacklist because they didn't pay taxes
• Have any kind of debt that's tax related
• Receive donations or make some kind of earning that's not from a standard business (think Patreon, Twitch subs/donations, etc.) and don't report your earnings, or make some kind of mistake while reporting them

The president will react like so:

 

"We'll bring the full weight of the law on these people that are destroying out society! We won't allow them to get away with this anymore, they will all be sent to jail, there will be no tolerance for this kinds of acts!"

 

Currently, there's a law awaiting approval that would put fiscal crimes (if you're a person, corporations are free to do whatever) in the same category as:

 

• Terrorism
• Genocide
• Buying/selling nuclear weapons

But murderers, rapists, kidnappers, etc. are free to do as they please.

 

I love this place.  

[MetalCaveman]

It's amazing, and frankly quite scary, how easy it is to manipulate public opinion in your favour simply by telling people what they want to hear, whether you can back that doesn't matter as long as you present your words in a pleasing manner.

 

Our president got elected in large part because he promised to end corruption (never said how though, just through "honesty and morals"), when he took seat, some people believed him as he did go after some big names from previous governments.

 

What everyone ignored, and is currently ignoring (or we've all given up, which isn't hard to believe), is that his administration also brought back several big names that were either being investigated or already had formal charges against them for some rather big corruption scandals. Further, many of his closest people are currently engaging in similar acts.

 

Say your uncle is a senator, and he knows someone who knows someone, couple of weeks later you find yourself in your new job, doing what? No one knows, no one cares, but now you're making more money in a month than most people will see in their life, and hey! Maybe you know someone, a friend, a relative, anyone that could use a boost to their income, so now you bring them in as well, what do they do? Who cares! The best part? Because you and your family are supporters of the current party you have nothing to worry about, you are untouchable.

 

The worst part is that now we're seeing much more serious shit going on, in a couple of states, senators of MORENA (the party of our president) have put forth a motion requesting "disappearance of powers", this means that the governor and other officials will be removed from their positions and replaced with individuals selected by the president himself. The senators argue that this is due to the levels of violence in those states, meaning the current officials have failed and thus should be removed, conveniently ignoring other states with similar issues which just so happen to be ruled either by MORENA or their affiliates/supporters.

 

Other members of MORENA have also made clear their intention to remove the law preventing re-election and some have asked that the president be allowed to remain in power "as long as the people want him there".

 

There's also been some other stuff being passed or modified, including a law that would allow the government to seize whatever property it wanted for the sake of "national security", as a result of an ongoing criminal investigation or for any other reason the government deems appropriate.

 

Some members of MORENA have also called for violent action against their opponents, fuelling that brand of nationalism that says that anyone who doesn't support the current regime is a traitor.

 

The president managed to sell a lie to many people, his "Fourth Transformation" which was meant to fundamentally change Mexico, lead it into a brighter future free of corruption, crime and violence. He never, not once, explained how he would do this, but by virtue of selling himself as a sort of messiah, an agent of change that would, just through virtue and "strong morals" do what none before him could. Any who stand against him are vile agents of the old ways, any who disagree with him are clearly blind supporters of PRI or PAN, who wish for their corruption to return, and his supporters blindly accept whatever they're told.

[TheMightyEthan]

Meet the new boss, the same as the old boss...

[MetalCaveman]

So yeah, today has been a day (content warning I guess, nothing graphic, but may be a bit too much for some people):

 

 

The other day 15 officers were killed in an ambush, following that, an army patrol ran into a group of armed men, 14 dead, many other similar events happened in the last couple of days. Today, Sinaloa is a fucking warzone, but of course the worthless sack of shit that's our president insists that everyone is happy and that there's nothing wrong.

 

By now, it's become somewhat obvious that he has some sort of truce with the cartels, else, how to explain that they can do shit like that and the official answer is always "think of your mothers! They would be so disappointed!" and/or "there's nothing to worry, don't believe the conservative media that wants to stop the fourth transformation, we're doing well and everyone's happy!".

 

So yeah, the country's undergoing a fourth transformation alright, soon we'll be placing large signs on the border that state "Abandon all hope ye who enter...", assuming there's anyone alive to do so.  

[Mal]

So... The government captured one of El Chapo's sons which ignited this siege of a city. Without a solid plan to get him out, the police/army got SWARMED and let the son go to be spared. Did I get that right? 

 

If so, looks to be quite the embarrassment. 

[MetalCaveman]

More or less yeah, a poorly planned operation against a high value target, which resulted in the city turning into a warzone, at which point in an attempt to appease the cartel he was freed, the official version is that they let him go in order to both preserve the lives of those who captured him as well as to ensure the safety of the people in that city. Of course, this did nothing to stop them as shootings continue and streets have been closed off with burning vehicles. Who knows how things will go tomorrow given that they also broke into a prison, setting all prisoners free to increase the chaos/violence.

 

It's going to be a fun weekend.

 

 

 

 

[MetalCaveman]

As expected, this morning the president basically gave himself a medal, stating that they will not use force because that's a thing of past, conservative administrations. He's all about love and peace, because in his imaginary world a simple "what would your mother think if she saw you doing this!" is enough to turn someone who has killed hundreds without a care into a law-abiding citizen who wishes to do good.

 

They're also tripping over each other trying to agree on a story, SEDENA says it was a poorly planned operation, the defence ministry says it was an accident that they found him, that it was a routine patrol that ran into him, etc.

 

Meanwhile cartels now know what to do when they want something.

[MetalCaveman]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-50101739

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/major-gun-battle-in-mexico-pits-security-forces-against-el-chapos-son/2019/10/17/c28d174a-f149-11e9-89eb-ec56cd414732_story.html

 

International media covering this stuff, and most of their opinions aren't positive or optimistic, can't wait for AMLO to label them all part of the news mafia, the conservative power structure that will crumble in the face of the 4T.  

 

I remember back when Calderón escalated the war against cartels that Fox started, going outside and seeing army trucks, some full of troops, others with mounted guns, they were in every corner and there were even more just doing patrols across the city, things never got that bad where I live, but with the way things are going now who knows how long they'll stay like this. Supposedly the CJNG has been trying to move here, but they haven't been successful yet, I know they are active in some towns and cities not far from here, but this city remains a relatively safe* place to be.

 

*Compared to other places in Mexico, I assume if we compare it to other countries it may fare that well.  

[TheMightyEthan]

It's such an alien concept to me for the military to not have the capacity to just walk in and lock everything down if they wanted it.

[MetalCaveman]

Yeah, that's been a topic of discussion here, the differences between how other countries, particularly the US would react to this vs how things went down.  

 

 

 

 

[Mal]

It's sort of hard to compare how things would have gone down. Capturing El Chapo's son would've fallen under the likes of the DEA/FBI paired with local law enforcement. From the videos I have seen, the cartels would've ate them. Shit was approaching Mogadishu (Black Hawk Down) level of getting swarmed. While our law enforcement have militarized, they ain't the National Guard let alone the Army. With that said, I'm not sure if the National Guard (what I'd expect the next response would be) would've made it in time especially with their tanks and air assets.

 

If the National Guard can't do it (be odd since they have been deployed in Iraq and Afghanistan), then It'd be a really bad day if the actual Army got sent in. Even worse day if the Marines came in because that means we want people dead.

But yeah, enough what ifs from me. Still pretty embarrassing for the national government though since what I assume to be equivalent to the National Guard/Army was there and was the ones to capture El Chapo's son. Forced to shake hands (initiated by the cartel) for a ceasefire.

 

Stay safe Metal.

[TheMightyEthan]

Yeah, sorry, I didn't mean it was weird that the initial operation got overwhelmed, I could totally imagine that happening here. What I meant was if something like that happened in the US they could easily call in enough forces to impose order after the fact.

[MetalCaveman]

It was the army that captured him, supposedly, local forces received little to no warning of what was going to happen. At least, that's what the  governor said.

 

That's what I was talking about too, how it was the president who gave the order to free him and how the army, national guard and local forces were powerless to do anything,  that's what I've seen discussed, we assume other countries wouldn't just give in like that, however in his obsession to avoid anything that previous administrations did (or maybe there's something else going on behind the scenes), he doesn't want to face the cartels head on, ever, he'd much rather hand the country to them than call forces forward. I get it, between Tlatlaya, Ayotzinapa and the ever-present shadow of 68, there's some doubts and fear whenever the army is involved, but that should not prevent them from doing their job when they're actually needed. It should also never be a thing that armed people can simply stop a military convoy, take their weapons and vehicles, film it all, release the video, and then get away with it because the president wants "peace".

 

I was talking to my father about this and we both wondered what's the point of all the helicopters, vehicles and weapons they like to showcase in the military parade of September 16, if when they're needed they're nowhere to be found?

 

It's also been done before too, during the capture of Chapo, the army had helicopters flying around the city, and forces were ready to be deployed immediately in case anything happened, of course, that operation had a proper plan and strategy as opposed to whatever this mess was.

 

We're now asking that Durazo, the defence minister along with the rest of the cabinet, resign due to their incompetence, negligence and general stupidity. But we also know the president will ascribe all criticism to "the conservative parasites, the neoliberal terrorists and the press mafia". 

 

And now there's some leaked documents (take these with a grain of salt though, all unconfirmed for now) with messages from generals and soldiers complaining about how things were handled, saying they were there, and were ready for whatever, until the president called them off just like that, they sound pretty pissed from what I've read.

 

Also this is rather disturbing:

 

 

The kids are chanting about how great an honour it is to have the president there, how he is the best president, the best for the children etc. BTW, he was at that ceremony while Culiacan went up in flames.

[TheMightyEthan]

Sounds like how our military apparently feels about getting suddenly pulled out of Syria and abandoning the Kurds.

 

 

[Mal]

For the survivors (there will be survivors), this sorrow will turn into anger. There will be a good chance we will be dealing with one Kurdish faction or another in the future and we will do what we must to protect ourselves. Still, I rage at this thought and us Americans must never forget why the Kurds, from one of our best allies in the Middle East with boots on the ground, became our enemies. 

 

I really refuse to have another post-9/11 moment and Afghanistan...