World Politics

[TheFlyingGerbil]

It was really odd how few ripples the annexation caused, basically no blowback whatsoever as far as I remember.

Edited February 24, 2022 by TheFlyingGerbil

[Thursday Next]

I thought the same. I was like... So we can just nick other people's territory again and you basically just get a fine? Cos the English used to love doing that shit up to the 18-1900s, but then it sort of fell out of fashion in the 1940's.

[MetalCaveman]

Even now, there are some countries still hesitant on imposing more severe sanctions. How much more does Russia and Putin need to do before some countries decide "OK, now THAT'S too far"?

 

 

[Mal]

Europe is that reliant on Russian gas. It's rather simple to not certify Nord Stream 2 since it's not operational thus not in use and relied on. Different story about Nord Stream 1. I think we are already seeing a shift in US O&G production (things seems to have gotten funny) to counteract the need for Russian gas but it'll take a while for anything substantial to come online (better to not rely on petrol at all...).

 

Honestly, I think most people were expecting Donbas to be at most what Putin wants, not wholesale regime change (I kind of don't buy the idea of going through all this to have an East and West Ukraine unless as a fall back plan). Ukraine probably would've given Donbas and others up after a struggle. This is probably why there wasn't much reaction to the official Russian "peacekeeping" force from earlier in the week (or even with Crimea back in 2014). Like it is very aggressive but have your fucking buffer state. Then of course, the full-blown invasion happened, which included Belarus involvement! Even the Russian troops in the separatist region of Moldova didn't run over (it's obvious why the Russian came over from Belarus, it's a stone throw to Kyiv).

 

Putin was seen a somewhat sane but after his speeches before the invasion and with the invasion, he's off his rockers. May the Ukrainians hold the Russians till they give up this fratricidal war. I think a lot of the Russians troops and civilians (the Russian anti-war protesters are brave as fuck) realize this is so pointless.

[TheMightyEthan]

As a sign of how crazy this really is, Switzerland, which has remained neutral in all conflicts for literal centuries, has joined in the sanctions. That's kind of super insane, for a country whose foreign policy has always been "Don't fuck with us and we won't fuck with you. But seriously don't fuck with us."

[Thursday Next]

It's going to be a huge loss for Putin in long/medium term. He had a neutral state in the form of Ukraine on his border, he's going to end up with Ukraine being a member of the EU when the dust settles.

[TheMightyEthan]

Assuming Ukraine is able to continue to hold out. There's some indication that the troops originally sent in were just poorly trained/equipped conscripts, not professional military, and that now they're mobilizing the good troops, so if that's the case then the tide may turn in Russia's favor.

[Mister Jack]

Seems stupid to throw your conscripts at a conflict before the vets, but who knows what they're thinking over at the Kremlin. As much as I'm rooting for Ukraine, I don't doubt that Russia can eventually take it if they're willing to throw enough soldiers at it.

Thing is, after they take it they have to keep it. Good luck, assholes.

[TheMightyEthan]

Western intelligence says that the Russians thought that everyone in Ukraine hated the government, they'd welcome the Russians with open arms, they'd take Kyiv with little resistance, and once they did the rest of the military would collapse. That's why they're so ill-equipped/supplied, they thought the war would be over by now. In that context it kind of makes sense, why risk some of your good soldiers getting killed when the crappy ones will do?

[Thursday Next]

On 3/1/2022 at 3:18 PM, Mister Jack said:

Seems stupid to throw your conscripts at a conflict before the vets, but who knows what they're thinking over at the Kremlin. As much as I'm rooting for Ukraine, I don't doubt that Russia can eventually take it if they're willing to throw enough soldiers at it.

Thing is, after they take it they have to keep it. Good luck, assholes.

 

Exactly this. All scenarios now are a loss for Putin:

 

1. They take Ukraine and spend forever with a ornery neighbour that they have to ceaselessly "pacify";

2. They split Ukraine and see "West Ukraine" join EU/NATO and have a hostile power on their border who they cannot invade again without facing the entire western world;

3. They leave Ukraine in defeat and lose a war against a nation 1/3 their size.

 

Under 1&2 sanctions continue indefinitely, Europe will be forced to move away from Russian energy reliance weakening Russia as a world power. Once they are weakened, China will have no further use for them and they lose their only meaningful ally.

 

Under 3, they spend the next few decades climbing back out of sanctions and regaining trust, but only if Putin is no longer there.

[TheMightyEthan]

Also with 3 they still quite possibly end up with an EU/NATO member on their border.

[MetalCaveman]

Russia struck a military base in Ukraine, about 20KM away from Poland, so... What happens if there's an attack that accidentally* hits Poland, or any other neighbouring country? Given the tension levels, would there be discussions and sanctions or would it be taken as a direct attack?

 

*Trying to give the benefit of the doubt and say that there could be a miscalculation of some sort.

 

In other news:

 

The European Parliament talked about the situation here in regards to journalists being killed, along with mentioning the attacks against the press that the president often engages in.

 

https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/20220304IPR24806/human-rights-breaches-in-myanmar-mexico-and-nagorno-karabakh

 

https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/TA-9-2022-0078_EN.html

 

The response, written by the president himself (according to... well, the president himself):

 

https://www.gob.mx/presidencia/prensa/comunicado-del-gobierno-de-la-republica-al-parlamento-europeo?state=published

 

Calling the European Parliament sheep, manipulated by the "corrupt group" that opposes the Fourth Reich Transformation, accusing them of fostering war by sending weapons to other countries (I wonder what country he's talking about? lol).

 

In short, AMLO did what he does best, throw a tantrum and try to make everything about him, painting himself as the sole hero that stands against an evil faceless empire that orchestrates an international conspiracy responsible for everything bad that happens in our country.

[TheMightyEthan]

If something "accidentally" hits Poland then it's pretty much up to Poland what to do, as I understand the NATO treaty. Basically Article 5 of the treaty is the part that says all alliance members have to come to the defense of any member that is attacked, so in theory at least it would be up to Poland whether to invoke Article 5 or not. In practice I imagine they would consult with other NATO members before deciding whether to invoke it, and my guess is NATO members have already come together and drawn up contingency plans that set out what they'll do in all kinds of situations that could happen in or adjacent to Ukraine. So probably there's a document somewhere in which paragraph 17.a.ii.A says that if a Russian missile hits Polish territory and no structures are damaged and no one is injured then they'll just issue a strongly worded statement, and 17.a.ii.B says if it destroys property but no one is injured then more forces will be moved nearer to the border, etc, covering situations ranging from disruption of the powergrid in NATO countries due to damage to power equipment in Ukraine all the way up through a major attack on a NATO member. They'll want to have planned for every possibility ahead of time and agreed on the response so that no one is having to make those decisions by the seat of their pants when the situation actually arises.

[Mal]

Pretty sure I've read that any strays will involve the full response. Basically, if the Russians are close enough to send something into NATO aligned country, they are way too close. In no simple terms is to tell Russians to fuck off. Of course, I bet they have something like what Ethan said.

 

In similar news: 

This is basically a dare and basically forces a cease fire in Kyiv.

 

In other Ukraine news:

I'm not sure what I feel about China sending aid, not sure if any lethal aid, to Russia. I can't help but think it'll paint a target on any Chinese person. Ah... one day at a time.

 

[TheMightyEthan]

Yeah, I saw they were going there and was like "holy shit, that's ballsy". My wife and I were just talking about what NATO would do if something happened to one of them. Whether that would constitute an attack on the country for purposes of Article 5.

 

As far as the Chinese aid, what I've been hearing discussed is "military aid", so that's cool. I don't think it would cause problems for Chinese people in the US though, unless we actually end up at war with Russia, but then I'm not a racist shitbag so I have trouble predicting what will and will not trigger their fuckery.

[TheMightyEthan]

Well, in the event we do end up in a war between Russia and NATO it seems Russia is giving us good data on their new weapons tech:

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/14/us/russia-ukraine-weapons-decoy.html

 

That seems like the kind of thing you don't deploy for a "small-scale" conflict like this, because you want it to be a surprise if you do end up in a war against a stronger foe. Now NATO knows about the countermeasures and has a head start on developing counter-countermeasures.

 

*Edit - lol, I wrote that last paragraph before finishing the article, but farther down:

 

Quote

The use of the decoys may point to some level of carelessness or urgency by Russian military leadership, Mr. Lewis said, given that Russia knows they will inevitably be collected and studied by Western intelligence services so that NATO air defenses can be programmed to defeat the Iskander’s countermeasures. “They’re digging deep, and maybe they no longer care, but I would care if I were them. I think that there are some very excited people in the U.S. intelligence community right now,” he added.

 

*Quote edited for conciseness.

[TheMightyEthan]

8 hours ago, Mal said:

Pretty sure I've read that any strays will involve the full response. Basically, if the Russians are close enough to send something into NATO aligned country, they are way too close. In no simple terms is to tell Russians to fuck off. Of course, I bet they have something like what Ethan said.

 

Looks like we have official word, from CNN:

 

Quote

There is “always a risk for incidents and accidents,” when there is fighting going on close to NATO borders, [NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg] warned.

 

NATO, he stressed, would make “every effort to prevent such incidents and accidents and if they happen to make sure that they don't spiral out of control and create really dangerous situations.”

 

The secretary general also said that, “NATO's integrated air and missile defense tracked the flight path of an object which entered Romanian airspace on Sunday.” 

 

In response, a “Romanian fighter aircraft scrambled immediately to investigate and the Romanian authorities and NATO are reviewing this incident.”

 

So the "make sure that they don't spiral out of control" part makes it sound like they intend to act with restraint as much as possible. We'd probably only see a full-fledged response to an unequivocal attack.

[MetalCaveman]

Mexico: The Estrada Doctrine states we should not judge or intervene in other country's affairs as that would violate their sovereignty.

 

Also Mexico: *After accusing the European Parliament of being warmongering sheep for supplying weapons to Ukraine* Here's a friendship committee with... RUSSIA!!!

 

 

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-lifestyle-mexico-europe-friendships-6e59bf618d045f937fb0bf5412afc734

 

 

[TheMightyEthan]

Well, strictly speaking, the West supplying weapons to Ukraine is prolonging the war... 

[MetalCaveman]

*In the Halo announcer voice* Point taken.

 

Though this was more of a criticism at how the Estrada Doctrine keeps being invoked by the government, and though it states that we "don't praise anyone, don't criticize anyone and, in times of conflict, we don't make moves that may seem like we're taking sides" they follow it with two actions that go directly against it, apologies if I didn't word it correctly.

[Mal]

inb4 the Mexican Missile Crisis

[TheMightyEthan]

17 hours ago, MetalCaveman said:

*In the Halo announcer voice* Point taken.

 

Though this was more of a criticism at how the Estrada Doctrine keeps being invoked by the government, and though it states that we "don't praise anyone, don't criticize anyone and, in times of conflict, we don't make moves that may seem like we're taking sides" they follow it with two actions that go directly against it, apologies if I didn't word it correctly.

 

Oh no, lol, I understood what you meant, I was just making fun of your government for focussing on people helping the defenders and claiming that's warmongering while ignoring the people who actually invaded the country in the first place.

[MetalCaveman]

15 hours ago, Mal said:

inb4 the Mexican Missile Crisis

 

Didn't some US general or something recently mentioned that GRU has a ton of operatives in Mexico? That's a fun thing to think about.

[TheMightyEthan]

It's kind of amazing how much of an outsized influence Russia is able to have on geopolitics, considering its economy is roughly the size of Florida's.

 

*Edit - I guess that's nominal GDP, and to be fair you should go by purchasing power parity, which puts it more on par with California. But still.

[Thursday Next]

It's nukes. If they didn't have thousands of nukes we (or rather you) would have changed the shit out of that regime a long time ago.