"The Game Console Is Dead"

[deanb]

@Jay: The point isn't if tablets and phones provide a AA experience. I'm going to re-iterate again: The core, aka "AAA's biggest fans" are likely to remain on console. Especially as when you even mention mildly frustrated avians they see red. As for how much these kinds of games make, I'll go into that below (cos I'm totally editing this response in after the fact cos I noticed I missed out your post ). But it doesn't really matter too much if there's not a single game pulling in the $1billion of COD. It's that there's many hundreds of thousands eating at the corners.

 

As far as X-COM goes I'm to understand there's a few games about that are looking to emulate the experience of the originals.

 

@Ethan: Wooh.

 

@Excel: 5million*$40 = $80million income. Rovio report a $100million yearly income on Angry Birds, and that's not taking into the fact one of these games is much cheaper to develop and practically free to distribute(that part is important). In case your'e wanting to know the number crunching. And that's one game up against another. The Nintendo line-up quickly dwindles once you leave the realm of Mario or WiiBlank games. With the overall line-up (unfortunately that's all apps, not just games) they've a turnover on iOS alone of about $7billion, which even slashing in half(most paid apps are games though) makes $3billion income on iOS alone.

Super Mario is a first party title, compared to the likes of "Carnival Games" they're pretty "AAA".

 

@Atomsk: Google did a report on tablet use, and found 50% of tablet users play games, with it being the second most common use after checking emails. (Social networking in third). As already noted in my response to Excel most of the time the top paid for apps are games. If you're looking to sell an app, make it a game (of course you can also make your game free and put ads on them or IAP). Also it doens't matter much on how much the "AAA-like" tablet games are selling since those aren't exactly the games pulling in the casual crowd.

 

I kinda wish the WIi U was out. Makes it much easier to look at where things could be going if we could compare a new console up against the era of tablets than the 6 year old pre-android/ios consoles. Especially as upcoming console has a tablet of sorts.

[VicariousShaner]

I wonder if any of the Big 3 console developers will invest in making more mobile (iOS) games. Sony and Microsoft already have a few phones, but neither of them have really focused on putting out high quality games for them. Nintendo, without a phone, only has their current handheld devices. I believe Nintendo has just a few products for the iPhone, like the Pokemon tablet puzzle thing, but it's possible in the future they may abandon their handheld devices to instead work on phone/tablet software.

 

Of course, the 3DS is starting to sell decently, so it would have to be a bit farther down the line.

[TheMightyEthan]

So to add some anecdotal "evidence":

 

Tonight for Halloween we saw 4 kids dressed as Angry Birds and 5 kids dressed as Mario characters. Among the Angry Birds there were 3 red birds and 1 ice bird, and among the Mario characters there were 4 Marios and 1 Waluigi.

[Hot Heart]

And not a green pig in sight.

[TheMightyEthan]

I was quite surprised to see Waluigi, of all people.

[Eleven]

I think it'd be unfair to judge the console market based on the Wii U. It's a console too late into the game, while not being next gen. The competitors for this system is still the PS3 and the 360, which people already have. I'm actually just waiting for the news that says the Wii U is not selling as expected.

 

Also, we seem to agree that the core gamers will stick to their consoles, while casuals are not going to bother. I know you guys are posting all these figures and statistics, I'm sorry that i'm not even bothering to read them, but I just find it silly calling the game console dead, when we can all clearly see that there is still, and there will be, a huge market for it, come next gen.

 

Oh, and calling the AAA niche, I guess that's true. But gaming has been a niche hobby from the start. We'll just go back to being uncool come next gen, while all the cool people play on their Apples and Androids (and on their Ouyas).

Edited November 1, 2012 by eleven

[deanb]

Also, we seem to agree that the core gamers will stick to their consoles, while casuals are not going to bother. I know you guys are posting all these figures and statistics, I'm sorry that i'm not even bothering to read them, but I just find it silly calling the game console dead, when we can all clearly see that there is still, and there will be, a huge market for it, come next gen.

Apology not accepted. Mainly cos if you'd read stuff you wouldn't have had to say the next line, There's a reason the thread title is "in quotation marks like this".

[CorgiShinobi]

Late response, but Dean, while you're saying that 50% of users play games on their tablets (making it the second common use), I'm questioning exactly how many games they are actually downloading, or even buying. What if that 50% is just a majority of users playing Angry Birds and a few other games that are either Trials or "Free w/ Ads."

 

You could say there's a large market, but how easily can you penetrate said market if their interest only stems to a select range of games?

[Eleven]

I guess I'm confused. I know it's in quotation marks, but that's what we've been discussing all along. I guess I'm not saying "dead" dead, but rather dying. And we seem to agree it's not dying. We (well, apparently not me ) seem to be discussing how the tablet market is eating away at the console market, while also stating that the console market is fine.

[deanb]

Late response, but Dean, while you're saying that 50% of users play games on their tablets (making it the second common use), I'm questioning exactly how many games they are actually downloading, or even buying. What if that 50% is just a majority of users playing Angry Birds and a few other games that are either Trials or "Free w/ Ads."

 

You could say there's a large market, but how easily can you penetrate said market if their interest only stems to a select range of games?

As already pointed out most app sales are games. Which I know on Play makes it super annoying as games aren't filtered from general apps so the top "Apps" tend to be the games from the top "Games" section.

Here's Play stores "Top Grossing" section: https://play.google.com/store/apps/collection/topgrossing Swiftkey is the first non-game App and that's at #13, with Comixology being the only other non-games app in the top 25. When it comes to Top Paid there's much more regular apps, but those don't tend to have IAP monetisation projects like games and comic stores can. https://play.google.com/store/apps/collection/topselling_paid

I have no idea how to link to iOS equivalent, they're still a bit behind in that regard.

[TheMightyEthan]

I guess I'm confused. I know it's in quotation marks, but that's what we've been discussing all along. I guess I'm not saying "dead" dead, but rather dying. And we seem to agree it's not dying. We (well, apparently not me ) seem to be discussing how the tablet market is eating away at the console market, while also stating that the console market is fine.

 

The original article was being sensationalist and saying that the console market is dying. What Dean was saying is that the consoles will keep going along, but they'll never be anywhere close to as big as they were this gen in terms of number of users.

[MasterDex]

In other words, it's the same deal as with PC's.

 

PC's are dying! Why? Because of Consoles!

Consoles are dying! Why? Because of Tablets and Smartphones!

 

Next it'll be Tablets and Smartphones are dying! Why? Because of VR headsets!

 

The reality is that all of these devices fill a niche and will, at least for the foreseeable future, continue to fill that particular niche. Gaming PC's will continue to exist because they allow developers, both young and old, to experiment in an open environment as well as allow gamers unparalleled control over their experience. Consoles will continue to exist because they allow developers to refine their craft as well as allow gamers an easy way to play games - Though it's less true than it was before: "They just work".

[deanb]

Consoles provide an expensive way to play games though, while the "It just works" starts to come less true for consoles and more true for PC (and on-par for mobile OSes). Given neither alternate platform provides much of a way to play Halo and Uncharted they help keep those guys along, but many others will fall by the wayside.

[CorgiShinobi]

"More true" as in simpler now, but you can still have individual complications on PC if you'll compare them to tablets or even handhelds.

 

Then again, simpler the machine, the less trouble you'll have (unless your luck is terrible and it's defective). As much as people want to go on how amazing NES - N64 era consoles are to this day, those same consoles aren't powerhouses and can last because of that simplicity.

[excel_excel]

Been thinking about this and while smart phones and tablets have evolved at an incredible rate offering us more and more gaming experiences as well as other media to watch and listen to, so have consoles. Using the PS3 as an example and its the strongest example because of how media centric it is, I can stream a lot of stuff on the PS3 browser, even download AVI files of shows, can use video streaming like Netflix, can buy loads of cheap PSN games and access games from the Sony back catalogue, and much more. I can just buy a PS3, and provided I don't have to the latest games right away, I can just get PS Plus and play all the games available on that. Heck I could just play DC Universe Online and not buy a game for a while now that its free to play! All consoles have browsers, netflix, Free2play stuff.

 

I think if consoles were still as they were ten years ago they would be dead in the water with the progress Smartphones and Tablets have made but consoles have made progress too. They've evolved and changed, and they've still got a lot more evolving and changing to do to keep up and they most likely will. The AAA title (aside from a few companies still delivering them) may be dying off but consoles are still an attractive purchase with the other options they provide as well.

[deanb]

Actually the AAA title is all the console has going for it given Netflix, living room web browsers, media streaming n Free2Play stuff is the domain of tablets and phones too. (Though on the Netflix front consoles do have an edge, unless you've a Smart TV/BD Player). It's the "B-game" that's the one dying off on consoles (though getting a fair boost on PC, Farm Sim 2013 wouldn't be a Charting game on console, let alone number 2), though consoles could do with winning it back, and a strong digital strategy and reduced cost of entry/production can help with that (cos it's not worth stocking these games on shelves). It especially helps fill in the quite periods between the blockbusters, helping the consoles maintain a consistent gaming profile that side-features like Netflix would harm/make fuzzy.

[TheMightyEthan]

I have a smart TV with a Netflix app, but I still use my PS3 for Netflix for 2 reasons: one, it's WAY more useable. The design is very similar but the TV is just a teensy bit too slow to run it well, so browsing/searching/etc is a pain on the TV. Two, PS3 is the only device I have that will play Netflix with 5.1 audio for some reason (as far as I can find only PS3 and Roku even support 5.1 on Netflix).

 

I also know this is completely tangential to your point.