An Industry Doomed...

[TornadoCreator]

I've been saying this for a long time but the statistics quite conclusively back up what I'm saying; not that the signs weren't there to begin with. This industry is doomed. This is the second video game crash in action, much like the crash of '83, we saw death throws as companies struggled against inevitability in 1984, and we see it now in 2014; exactly 30 years later like some macabre example of the adage "history repeats itself".

 

Now, please be aware it brings me little pleasure to bring this news, and I don't wish to sensationalise; particularly in an industry where sensationalism is second nature, but this is a fact. You can write me off as yet another fearmonger if you wish but it won't cushion the blow nor change the tides to do so.

 

This industry has, since it's inception, survived on a boom cycle that we see again and again. For every boom though there's always an inevitable rush to meet it, with oversaturation soon following. The market gives way as demand falls off, and the remaining demand simply cannot sustain the glut of generic products, and the entire trend collapses. This pattern is one we can see again and again, the mascot platformer boom of the early 90s, the JRPG boom of the mid 90s, the survival horror boom of the late 90s, and the music game boom of the 00's that allowed for yearly releases of Guitar Hero at one point. The thing to remember is each time these bubble's burst, they've invariably lead to studio closure and industry consolidations. The major difference is that most of the industry wasn't trying to emulate Final Fantasy or Resident Evil when their respective boom periods went the way of Lindsay Lohans career.

 

Today though, AAA games cost so much to make, and require so many sales in a fractured and quite frankly far too small userbase, that if you're not targetting the multiplayer FPS crowd; you're just not making money. As much as we hate to admit it, Call Of Duty and Halo are pretty much the only things making money during the economic shifts of the last decade, hense why the current consoles launched with Call Of Duty, Battlefield, and Killzone out the gate, and the Halo collection is already touted as the game-changer the Xbox One needs. What this means though, is when the multiplayer FPS bubble bursts, and it will burst, it takes the entire industry along with it.

 

Now, don't get me wrong there will be a few things that survive; even florish. A crash doesn't necessitate an end to good or profitable products; in fact the crash in the 80's saw a boom here in the UK for home computers which saw the Commodore 64 and Amstrad CPC become successful. 

 

The problem currently is that middle-production studios that used to make the mid-budget niche games before everything became either bloated budget AAA or indie games, they've all been bought up and consolidated into one of the big five publishers, or bought outright for first party development; otherwise they just flat out die off, fail to pay their bills and disappear such as Black Isle, Pandemic, and Looking Glass Studios. Even the big boys such as THQ, Atari, and following fast in their footsteps Capcom, and perhaps soon Sony themselves. To deny that financial trouble exists in this industry is to simply bury ones head in the sand.

 

The problem with this situation is that these big consolidation filled mega-corporate developer giants like EA, Activision, or Square Enix are, by their very nature immovable; they have shareholders to satisfy meaning they can't make a move without first explaining it and every permutation of it first. They lack the ability smaller studios have to take risks. They are much like the Titanic, too big and moving ahead too fast to change course in response to the will of the industry, largely because they've absorbed every smaller vessal along it's way. Again, much like the Titanic, this industry has now slammed into the iceburg but the captains are so lost all they can think to do is go on full steam ahead instead of screaming "women and children first". They could release smaller niche titles needing a minorty market interest to each make steady profit, but instead they throw yet more money on more financially intensive AAA games; none of which have a sustainable future. It's almost as if these corporate fat-cats are incapable of understanding basic economic trends.

 

Today's figues are in and the outlook is bleak to say the least. With no home console toping the 100,000 weekly worldwide sales mark for hardware, and only the 3DS managing respectable sales of 126,000 sales we can safely say this year marks some of the worst sales this industry has seen. With total hardware sales failing to top half a million units sold; a meager 483,000 units in fact, of which almost 100,000 units are last gen hardware and you have an industry flailing in it's death throws right there. Only one game broke 100,000 sales in the week ending July 5th and that was Mario Kart 8 for WII U. Global software sales failed to hit 4 million sales across all platforms, and again last gen sales contributed far too much with more than half those sales; 2.3 million, being for last gen hardware. And this is from an industry that claimed to be recession-proof.

 

Going back to the start of the recession, a mere 6 years shows not a single system selling less than 100,000 hardware units, a global hardware sales of over 1.3 million, with the DS selling more hardware on it's own (487,000) than the entire industry does today. The 10 best selling games all topped 130,000 sales each with some breaking the 300,000 mark, none of which are in their first month of sales. Global software sales where at over 7.5 million weekly sales; in July, in the middle of the worst banking crisis since the 1930s. When that year is doubling your sales statistics, it's time to panic.

 

By my estimation, this industry needs at least 40 million current gen consoles (PS4, Xbox One, Wii U), in peoples homes by the end of the year, minimum. With each platform needing at least 12-15 million units in it's own right to be viable. Even with that boost, I don't see how this industry can flourish under the current conditions as developers are still requiring lifetime sales of 7-10 million units per game to turn a profit and that audience simply doesn't exist for most genres. I won't be shocked if when the dust settles some time around late 2015, if there's only one of the big three still standing, if indeed any of them are.

Edited July 18, 2014 by TornadoCreator

[TheMightyEthan]

I agree with a lot of the points you make, but think you're way off the deep end as far as how severe you predict the consequences are going to be.

 

Also, one little quibble:  you're right that Sony as a whole isn't doing so hot, but Playstation is one of its few profitable businesses.

[TornadoCreator]

I agree with a lot of the points you make, but think you're way off the deep end as far as how severe you predict the consequences are going to be.

 

Also, one little quibble:  you're right that Sony as a whole isn't doing so hot, but Playstation is one of its few profitable businesses.

 

Profitable now sure, during it's first year launching tbe PS4... but with fewer and fewer releases, company consolidation etc. it'll be getting less and less in software licencing fees (especially as the largest profits come from the PS3 with it's far more substantial userbase). Playstation is unlikely earn enough to hold Sony afloat, so much so that the company is already liquidating assets and downsizing. PS4 is underpowered and yet it's the most powerful console on the market. Given that, it's unlikely this gen will last much more than 4 years, but I don't see Sony having enough in capital to design and manufacturer the Playstation 5 with launch titles in that time; all whilst maintaining support for the Playstation 4, Playstation 3, and Vita; none of which it's currently in a position to discontinue.

 

Of the three hardware devs, Sony Is the one I see most likely to be leaving the industry this generation sadly.

[Mr. GOH!]

Consoles have a hard road ahead of them, true. Interactive digital entertainment (that is, video games) will be around for a long time. 

[TornadoCreator]

Consoles have a hard road ahead of them, true. Interactive digital entertainment (that is, video games) will be around for a long time. 

 

Definitely. The industry may crash and burn, but the medium itself will continue... the question is, will it even be recognisable as "video games"; as we think of them, in the future.

[Vecha]

Earlier in another thread you said they need 10 million consoles...now 12 or more?

Are you going to keep increasing that number? Lol

And I just looove how you said a "combined 40 million" in order to get you out of being "wrong." I can see the Xb-one and Ps4 getting to 10, but I guess everything is going to explode if they don't get to the magical 12-15(that's been updated) lol

 

"By my estimation..."

I have a very strong feeling that if 2015 turns out to be a good year...you'll just continue to push the date forward.

 

And Sony leaving first? I guess selling more consoles than the other guys is hard on their bottom line....

Edited July 18, 2014 by Vecha

[TheMightyEthan]

Playstation is unlikely earn enough to hold Sony afloat, so much so that the company is already liquidating assets and downsizing.

I agree, but I think that if Sony really gets into trouble they'll spin off Playstation, which can continue as its own company.

 

PS4 is underpowered and yet it's the most powerful console on the market. Given that, it's unlikely this gen will last much more than 4 years...

I think you're way overestimating the importance of "power".

 

Also, I would point out that the period immediately post-launch (6 months - 1 year) is traditionally a slow time for consoles. They got all the hardcore people who were super excited right at launch, and then it takes time to build up enough of a library to draw in others. Typically sales keep accelerating for the first several years before finally plateauing.

[Strangelove]

 

(No disrespect, but I didnt read the whole thing and I so heavily disagree that a discussion with me about this subject would go nowhere, so this is all Im going to contribute.)

Edited July 18, 2014 by Strangelove

[TCP]

 

By all means criticise, but can we please stop the Nintendo doom-saying, it's pathetic and makes sensible discussion difficult at best. If you have reasons why Nintendo should be third party, or why they should drop the Gamepad, or why they should 'go mobile' or all the other shit I hear on the net nowadays; that's not based around attracting the Playstation/Xbox audience sure... but you don't, because Nintendo only count as one of the big three when it suits people. It's why there's loads on PS3 vs. 360 or PS4 vs. XBO discussions online... because Nintendo are a completely different market, and a completely different way of doing things.

 

 

So Nintendo isn't doomed.... but the entire industry is?

 

 

[Alex Heat]

Nintendo's part of the industry, ergo Nintendo is also doomed.

 

That said, I wouldn't be surprised if there was another industry crash.  I'd hate to see a bunch of people lose their jobs that don't deserve it while most of the people responsible for the state of affairs prance off into the sunset (because that's what would happen), but something something phoenix analogy.

Edited July 18, 2014 by Alex Heat

[TornadoCreator]

Earlier in another thread you said they need 10 million consoles...now 12 or more?

 

Are you going to keep increasing that number? Lol

 

And I just looove how you said a "combined 40 million" in order to get you out of being "wrong." I can see the Xb-one and Ps4 getting to 10, but I guess everything is going to explode if they don't get to the magical 12-15(that's been updated) lol

 

"By my estimation..."

 

I have a very strong feeling that if 2015 turns out to be a good year...you'll just continue to push the date forward.

 

And Sony leaving first? I guess selling more consoles than the other guys is hard on their bottom line....

 

It's an estimation, it's hardly an exact science. If they don't hit 10 million they're screwed because they won't have enough systems out there to support moderately sized exclusives, however even then 12-15 million is needed to ensure that the golden 40% figure is above 5 million, as no game yet has secured more than a 40% adoption rate without being a pack in game. Even then that's a bare minimum for success. I'd be wanting a userbase of at least 20 million before trying to push a AAA exclusive personally.This generation, in order to stay profitable, needs a combined userbase of 40 million to make multiplats viable. With a growing budget and average adoption rate not going above 25% for multiplats, this would allow software sales of 10 million to be an achievable goal. Significantly less than a userbase of 40 million though and games only remain profitable by releasing them cross-gen.

 

Yes if 2015 is a good year I will predict difficulty for the industry in 2016-17, because one good year doesn't change the tide of the industry. Almost every major development company has been de-listed from the stock exchange and many are throwing themselves into mobile gaming in a desperate attempt to strike oil in a market that's already reached it's peak.

 

As for Sony leaving video games... let's hope it doesn't happen but with their financial record they may be forced into bankruptcy. Alternatively, the playstation brand may be bought up by another company. Either way, while PS4 may be successful I don't see Sony having the infrastructure and capital to fund a ninth gen console. Microsoft, they are a wildcard. Whilst they have money they're hardly going to let the Xbox division have it all. If Sony makes a comeback, or if new companies enter the market, I can see Microsoft abandoning Xbox as an unprofitable venture. Lastly Nintendo, who will be fine. They're financially stable and their handheld division makes decent money. Couple that with lower development costs for first party Nintendo games and you have at least some stability. All that said, it'd not be unreasonable if Nintendo abandoned home consoles entirely after the Wii U and developed a next-gen handheld, perhaps one that can connect to your TV when at home. These are reasonable ways in which all three hardware developers could leave the home console market after this gen.

 

 

By all means criticise, but can we please stop the Nintendo doom-saying, it's pathetic and makes sensible discussion difficult at best. If you have reasons why Nintendo should be third party, or why they should drop the Gamepad, or why they should 'go mobile' or all the other shit I hear on the net nowadays; that's not based around attracting the Playstation/Xbox audience sure... but you don't, because Nintendo only count as one of the big three when it suits people. It's why there's loads on PS3 vs. 360 or PS4 vs. XBO discussions online... because Nintendo are a completely different market, and a completely different way of doing things.

 

So Nintendo isn't doomed.... but the entire industry is?

 

 

Correct. Nintendo are, perversely, in the strongest position out of the big three largely due to the 3DS. It's not in a great position and will likely be facing losses and poor sales, but unlike Sony it has the bank to handle this for years yet. My issue is more with people acting as though Nintendo are dead in the water while simultaneously proclaiming the PS4 will dominate and sell PS2 levels of units, becoming the new big hotness, when it's demonstrably not true. Either the whole industry is doomed, or none of it is... it's the constant Nintendo bashing that annoys me.

Edited July 18, 2014 by TheMightyEthan
Consolidated posts.

[TheMightyEthan]

I don't think you'll find many who disagree that game budgets need to come down, but the publishers could figure that out prior to it causing a collapse.  More, smaller bets can (in theory) yield similar profits to a few huge bets, and you don't risk failure of the company due to any one product.

[TornadoCreator]

Nintendo's part of the industry, ergo Nintendo is also doomed.

 

That said, I wouldn't be surprised if there was another industry crash.  I'd hate to see a bunch of people lose their jobs that don't deserve it while most of the people responsible for the state of affairs prance off into the sunset (because that's what would happen), but something something phoenix analogy.

 

The crash has already happened. If company consolidation and the majority of the industry being de-listed from the stock exchange doesn't constitute a crash in your book, then by your own high standards the crash of '83 doesn't count either. If you're expecting the news to suddenly say, "Yesterday Sony exploded due to extreme lack of funds", you're going to be sorely left wanting. This is not Mad Max. How anyone can deny the crash after massive industry giant THQ died spectacularly last year I don't know. Fact is, the crash is here, it's happened.

[TheMightyEthan]

One company collapsing != a crash.  There's a lot of churn in the industry, and we're definitely undergoing a major shift in the way it's structured, but that doesn't mean it's a crash.  A crash is a sudden bottom falling out, not a gradual decline.

[TornadoCreator]

 

I think you're way overestimating the importance of "power".

 

Ubisoft have already been heard complaining about the lack of power. The PS4 is already outperformed by a mid-range gaming PC. I honestly don't see how these consoles will compete in say 3 years when more intensive games are being designed. 

 

I don't think you'll find many who disagree that game budgets need to come down, but the publishers could figure that out prior to it causing a collapse.  More, smaller bets can (in theory) yield similar profits to a few huge bets, and you don't risk failure of the company due to any one product.

 

If only publishers thought like that. Rather than go after small profits they always aim for the massive AAA megahit... no clue why, greed most probably.

[TheMightyEthan]

 

I think you're way overestimating the importance of "power".

Ubisoft have already been heard complaining about the lack of power. The PS4 is already outperformed by a mid-range gaming PC. I honestly don't see how these consoles will compete in say 3 years when more intensive games are being designed.

 

More intensive games just won't be designed, or at least not many of them, the same way games have been held back for the last several years by the PS360. Devs may grumble about it, but they're not going to move to PC in droves because PC games just can't support the same kinds of numbers that consoles do. I think the proof of this is that PS360 games are still being put out, even though they're far more underpowered than PS4/Xbone, because there are enough users to justify it.

 

I also think you're discounting the optimizations possible one a console where everyone has the exact same hardware. Early games always look worse and perform worse than later games, because the devs haven't yet figured out how to eek out every last little bit of performance. The superior potential for optimization is what allows consoles to far outperform PC's with similar on-paper performance specs.

 

*Edit* - I do agree that it's kind of baffling why companies continue to almost exclusively chase the huge blockbusters when there's only room for so many of those and if you try and fail it can bankrupt the company.  I'm just hoping the industry will figure that out eventually.

Edited July 18, 2014 by TheMightyEthan

[TornadoCreator]

One company collapsing != a crash.  There's a lot of churn in the industry, and we're definitely undergoing a major shift in the way it's structured, but that doesn't mean it's a crash.  A crash is a sudden bottom falling out, not a gradual decline.

 

This isn't just one company, or a gradual decline. Every major company was affected, studios such as Black Isle, Pandemic, Hudson Soft, Irrational Games and Looking Glass Studios all went up in smoke. THQ; one of the largest publishers in the world went into complete liquidation. Atari and Index both went bankrupt. Capcom is now also facing bankruptcy, Sony is downsizing so much they're selling off real estate, Rockstar and Ubisoft have closed entire studios, Nintendo CEO and directors took a 50% pay cut, and Activision, EA, Xbox and Square Enix all replaced their CEO and/or major board members and started massive company restructuring...

 

...this is an industry crash, what more proof do you need; a steaming fucking crator?!

[TheMightyEthan]

Sony's problems aren't related to video games, it's the whole rest of the company that's having problems.

 

THQ's decline was gradual, not some sudden collapse, everyone saw it coming miles away.

 

Studio/publisher closures have been routine for at least the last 10 years (the length of time I've been following that kind of industry news).

 

Nintendo execs took a price cut because they made fucking idiotic decisions regarding the Wii U, which were obviously stupid to everyone ahead of time.

 

The industry's volatile, there's a lot of churn, always has been, and isn't crashing now any more than it was 10 years ago.  What I need to be convinced it's a collapse is something to show this time is any different than it was for previous console cycles.

[TornadoCreator]

I also think you're discounting the optimizations possible one a console where everyone has the exact same hardware. Early games always look worse and perform worse than later games, because the devs haven't yet figured out how to eek out every last little bit of performance. The superior potential for optimization is what allows consoles to far outperform PC's with similar on-paper performance specs.

 

Normally I'd agree but the PS4/XBO are built on x86 hardware; the same stuff PC has been using for years. There's no room for devs to "figure out" more from the hardware as we already know it's limitations. That's why despite tiny differences in hardware the developers are able to eek out greater performance from the PS4 already. There's little forward momentum available to the devs now.

[TornadoCreator]

Sony's problems aren't related to video games, it's the whole rest of the company that's having problems.

 

THQ's decline was gradual, not some sudden collapse, everyone saw it coming miles away.

 

Studio/publisher closures have been routine for at least the last 10 years (the length of time I've been following that kind of industry news).

 

Nintendo execs took a price cut because they made fucking idiotic decisions regarding the Wii U, which were obviously stupid to everyone ahead of time.

 

The industry's volatile, there's a lot of churn, always has been, and isn't crashing now any more than it was 10 years ago.  What I need to be convinced it's a collapse is something to show this time is any different than it was for previous console cycles.

 

I think you're willfully ignoring facts because they're uncomfortable. I understand that, I own both a Wii U and a Vita, do you think I want there to be a crash? Honestly though, writing off all of that as "the industry is volatile" strikes as denial. I've shown how the difference in sales between now and 2008 are quite telling in my opening post, how are you not yet convinced? Moreover, would anything convince you or will you attempt to explain everything away as though they're all isolated incidents?

[deanb]

Eh. I used to be one of the doomsayers years back and if anything the industry is getting stronger and stronger as a whole. There's probably more studios now than there ever has been in the history of gaming, the little guys are managing to hold thier own against the big guys, and the big guys are so big that for the past few years games have have been the highest entertainment earners.

 

Sony issues is entirely down to non-gaming side of things. They've had absofuckinglyutely awful box office performance the past few years, fucked up in the electronics front with trying to go down the 3-D route a bit too hard (they weren't the only ones hurt) and like most non-Apple/Samsung phone makers is barely eeking out an existence on the phone front (which is also the cause of most lay-offs at MS the past few days). Should the SCE and Xbox Divisions be absolutely terrible, lacking in even bringing in tertiary business (e.g Sony Music, Skype, Blu-Ray, Kinect, etc) given the nature of their businesses they'd be carved off and pushed out on a boat. Xbox has managed to make a fair amount of money out of charging users $60 a year to use thier servers, and other peoples servers, which the Office side is only just having a crack at trying out. 

 

On the Atari front they haven't existed for a very very very long time. It's a trademark that passes around the industry like some kind of desired VD. THQs failures were pretty much set in stone long before, and mostly amounted down to the uDraw product which is similar to Activision with Guitar Hero though they were able to dump it before it took them under.

 

Also we're 9 months into PS4 and Xbox One sales, 2008 is 24-36 months into sales, so quite the gap in comparison. Atm PS4 is at 9 million units, at 9 months PS3 was at 4.3 and Xbox 360 at 5 million. Which means PS4 alone is selling almost as much as Xbox 360 and PS3 combined. It's probably worth noting that in the 9 month figure for 7th gen consoles is at a time where iOS and Android wasn't a thing, Steam was only a couple years old, "free to play" meant you had chipped your console. If you wanted to play games, you mostly had the big three. These days the main console makers compete with a vastly different landscape (which as we all know Nintendo is really really struggling with). As you said, it's 2014, shouldn't really be just looking at a handful of consoles.

 

As for the 40 million thing, not sure where that's coming from. There's currently about 200million 7th gen consoles out in homes, with about 25million or so 8th gen consoles, and then on top of that hundreds of millions, of other gaming devices such as PC, phone and tablet. I know some gamers with a rod up their bum like to dismiss them, but in a discussion of the health of the industry at large it's unwise to ignore the multi-billion dollar elephants in the room. Yes consoles aren't doing as well as they had done in the past, and unable to coast along, but they are not the industry and the industry as a whole is better for that. In fact it's led to consoles changing a fair amount between generations. PS4 has seen a healthy rise of indie games where normally you'd have just the big publishers on stage.

 

While I'm not sure on the actual sales and revenue of most games, I would assume that given games continue to be made that most games released do actually return a profit (though not always the desired amount). End of the day publishers are businesses, if games weren't a money making venture then they wouldn't be in it. As for certain genres being a lynchpin for the industry, that's just pure bullcrap. The musical instrument gnre was huge for several years, and then vanished. We're still standing. The space genre dropped off the face of the earth ( ) and here we are with Star Citizen being one of the largest crowd funded games around, with No Mans Sky and Elite also being big names joining the roster. DOTA has gone from a mod for Warcraft to a genre in its own right in a very sudden space of time. Fuck we even have a genre of stupid "simulator" games, and even legitimate simulators are doing quite well. In fact a lot of seemingly "niche" genres have been doing gang busters. Heck 2014 is the year where Minecraft became the third best selling video game of all time, all others being either Nintendo, COD or GTA (wiuth 17 spot taken by Kinect and then Sims, BF3, Skyrim and such at 26 onwards). If that doesn't show the industry is stronger than ever I'm not sure what is. The industry can support a game created by one man, becoming the 3rd best selling of all time.

 

All that's "doomed" is AAA games, and publishers aren't blind to this. For example Ubisoft is dippings its toes in the smaller games such as Valient Hearts and Child of Light. EA is pouring a fair amount of money into mobile (though also getting slaps on wrist by EU). Activision is playing it a bit dangerous with mostly sticking to COD/WoW, and 2K is somewhat coasting with GTA as well. But it's unlikely that those will fail anytime soon, and EA's stumbles with BF4 are likely to only shore up CODs future success. COD and GTA are the only series' able to rub shoulders with 7th gen Nintendo. It would require everyone decided to stop buying COD/GTA all at once for those to stumble and it's highly doubtful such a coordinated effort would be possible. As far as costs for making a game goes, they've never been lower. I'm bummed I never really fully flung myself at it at the time, but my "Game Maker" series was trying to show folks a world of "hey, you have a computer? For the price of next to zero dollars you can become a game designer!". Which is quite amazing really. The cost of creating content across all forms of entertainment has nose dived. of late. Really the only major issue now is discoverablity, which is where the AAA guys still have the upper hand for the most part. The marketing networks that got them sales for the last 30 years are still around. Indie joe isn't going to be able to push out TV and bus stop adverts or make a hotel sized Dovakhin, but on the other hand those cost millions which he hasn't had to spend.

 

Industry has never been better. Just it's not the industry that was around in 2006. or 1984. Or any year previous really.

[Vecha]

I agree with Dean.

I'll meat you halfway TC.

Maybe the Crash has happened...but not the total collapse.

It's like when people used to say that in 2012 the world will end as we know it....you could turn that around and say, "that doesn't mean we're all gonna die...just how we once knew the world."
It's cheesy, maybe. But maybe gaming will just evolve to having smaller publisher(who may one day get big) and the Big Guys not relying too heavily on the 1 Bajillion dollar project. I still think we'll "big" game, but I predict publishers will work on streamlining budgets...there are some great smaller publishers that do similiar things to the big guys for a fucktonalot less. 


As for relying too heavily on XBO/PS4? I feel we will just see multiplats for a year or two...with a few next gen exclusives...and I feel it will start to become more and more rare to see a third party exclusive(Unless the ps4 breaks the PS2 record and beats everyone to dust....which I feel XBO will recover, and hopefully WiiU)

I'm gonna admit upfront, I'm not decent at numbers. I am an English/Literature/Philosophy guy. On the ACT I made a 12-14 on math...and a 33 in English and 30-something in reading back in high school. 

[TheMightyEthan]

I'm going to throw out some numbers (USA only because the staggered launches makes wordwide numbers extremely difficult to compare):

 

Week ending July 5, 2014 (roughly 6.5 mos after PS4/Xbone launches):

• Xbox One: 39,025
• PS4: 38,044

 

July 6, 2013 (6.5 mos after WiiU launch):

• Wii U: 7,707

 
July 7, 2007 (6.5 mos after PS3/Wii launch):

• PS3: 20,834
• Wii: 87,288

 
July 8, 2006 (6.5 mos after Xbox 360 launch):

• Xbox 360: 48,289

 

Which of these things are not like the other, amirite?  Obviously both the Wii and the Wii U are outliers, in opposite directions.  The PS3 had a rough start but was by no means a failure overall, and yet 6.5 months after launch it was selling half of what PS4/Xbone currently are.  PS4 and Xbone aren't doing as well as the 360, but they're definitely in the comfortable range.

 

Source for all numbers is VGChartz, which I have heard plenty of complaining about but that you said in a previous post you thought was accurate for retail hardware, so there we go.

Edited July 18, 2014 by TheMightyEthan
formatting

[Mr. GOH!]

And remember, the 360 didn't have any real competition in its generation at the time.

 

Then again, console sales are only part of the picture; the costs of AAA game development (and marketing) are soaring. I think that what we'll see (and are already seeing) is higher-profile non-AAA games that do fairly well (enough for the devs to remain in business and put out more games). These include indie and kickstarter games. The huge AAA hits are not going anywhere; they're just getting riskier to make. II think we'll have recognizable video games for as long as we have civilization at the current level of technology.

[TheMightyEthan]

I made a mistake: that's actually 7.5 months after launch for each of them, not 6.5.  The numbers are all right, it's 7.5 for all of them, I just can't count months.