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The March of Technology


deanb
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@Dean: you're right, lots of contracts are basically form contracts, but those already don't require a human to write each time because you just reuse the form. More to the point, when I said "legal documents" I meant court documents, letters to other attorneys convincing them that your position is strong, etc. That kind of stuff takes a disproportionate amount of time because it requires higher level thinking and analysis.

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A lot of law is already frighteningly automated. A lot of the stuff can't be automated under current court rules and precedents, as human judgment or a witness is required. A lot of law is gruntwork correspondence that requires a human, or several humans, to make judgment calls for which they are legally responsible. 

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Oh yeah, it will be a long long time before the law allows stuff to be completely automated, with no human in the loop to be legally responsible for the judgments, far longer than what would be technically possible with software.  What I could definitely see happening though is software starting to replace paralegals.  I mean, that's basically the position paralegals already hold: do the gruntwork but have an actual licensed attorney sign off on it before it goes out the door.  I don't see a reason software couldn't fill that role.

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Thankfully AIs can't interpret things unknown to them... I think. So I'm more or less safe. Bring on the driverless cars. I'm already a liability due to my habit of checking out road cuts and other geologic features while driving. It would be great if I can do that carefree. Though I don’t think an self drive car can drive up a rocky and bumpy off road. That sort of driving kind of requires a bit of interpretation.

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Gladly, I think that will be after I pass.

I doubt it.  Did you watch the video?  Learning software is getting really advanced.  "Learning" just means discovering new information.  The problem isn't the information acquisition, it's higher order thinking to figure out how it's relevant, but I doubt that will be too far in the future either.

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I, for one, welcome our new robot overlords.

 

I know it's an ancient meme, but I actually do welcome this trend. I have no real rational argument, but I'm confident it will work out okay. Plus I'm 100% sure it can't be stopped so see no reason worrying about it (thinking/talking about it is great though, it helps us to prepare for and manage the transition).

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I don't think robots taking jobs will be as big of a problem as transitioning to a society that guarantees each citizen enough money to live at least somewhat comfortably. For pretty much all of human history we've believed in the value of working to support yourself and your family, but when the jobs are all being done by robots we're going to have to change our way of thinking. It isn't realistic to expect everyone to work when there is no work. You can't have it both ways.

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Gladly, I think that will be after I pass.

I doubt it.  Did you watch the video?  Learning software is getting really advanced.  "Learning" just means discovering new information.  The problem isn't the information acquisition, it's higher order thinking to figure out how it's relevant, but I doubt that will be too far in the future either.

 

Maybe it is the geologist in me leaking but I deal with slooooooow processes so fast, off to the future stuff doesn't quite click with me.

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Yeah the jobs stuff and "not having to/being able to work for a living" is going to take some wrapping your head around somewhat. It'll likely end up mostly with the intermediary where Marge has the automated house so just ends up taking up alcoholism. As it notes most of the stock market is already ran by computers (and it's becoming a bit of an issue, it goes way faster than any human could properly keep an eye on. It's a thing folks are working on though).

 

As for understanding the unknown as an intermediary they won't really need to, just knowing more than people would be enough. Take the Watson example, if you have a patient on an episode of House, you've got House versus Watson, Watson is likely to get to the root of the cause much quicker and safer purely because it can pool upon its many many "knowns" which to House, a single mushy meat-sac, would all be "unknowns" to him. You've all done teamwork and know what can come of bouncing ideas off each other based on your own individual knowledge and experience pooled together.

It's where the fancy singularity-esque stuff starts cropping up. You put a few scientists together for a few years and they develop a way of splitting the atom. Put a few hundred machines together, capable of "telepathically" sharing knowledge, mathematics, concepts, and who knows what they could do.

 

Hint: This is now, with relatively small and simple bots:

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn26060-watch-a-swarm-of-1000-minirobots-assemble-into-shapes.html#.U-9A7_ldXCc

(incidentally robots beat humans cos humans will always be human, but robots can, well the above are based on ants. Big Dog is based on a dog (durr), and then you've stuff like hamburger making machines with no current basis at all.

 

I do find it a bit concerning that so far in relation to unemployment figures there's no mention of robots is getting concerning, hopefully in the next few years it'll crop up a bit more. I wouldn't know solutions to suggest more.

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  • 5 weeks later...

(skip to 57s)

 

So a company managed to print out an entire working car during the 6 day run of a car show in Chicago.

 

http://3dprint.com/15139/local-motors-3d-printed-strati/

As article notes it's not the first time, but certainly the quickest (print hours aren't listed but going day and night it'd still only take 144hrs, compared to the 2,500 of first printed car). What I'm curious on is if it's just the structural parts or if they managed to print an engine too. I'd imagine given it's plastic they could maybe have used an electric motor rather than regular old combustion engine.

 

bit of googling says it's electric powered:

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/world-s-first-three-dimensional-printed-car-made-in-chicago/ (and a much deeper article)

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  • 3 weeks later...

I just was about to post a different article regarding the same thing. Its amazing! I don't have a penis problem, but what if one day somebody shoots my dick off? Well no need to worry Madbassman, we can grow you one in 3 weeks, and you'll have a new one!

 

Seriously, the advancement of being able to grow new parts of your body once they have been damaged or lost is amazing!

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I wonder how they are pulling that off. If they can do a penis, I imagine that technique can be applied to say the fleshy bits of an arm. Figure out how to make bone and we'll be golden.

 

And yes, shame about the brain but I'm hoping people will figure that one out in my lifetime since I have a feeling that will be what gets me.

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I think with the penis is has internal form and structure that they can build the new penis around, less so with an arm beyond the bone. If they can figure how to properly do muscles we'll be using it for more than people (if we can do proper muscle tissue then can have juicy tender lab beef that's had a good while of simulated walking around, rather than growing in a petri dish.

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Well from my understanding is that the penis is basically a muscular tube. We have been making progress in muscle reconstruction for a small amount of time, so I think they applied what they learned to the penis.

 

I have no doubt that in the next 50 years (most likely all of our lifespan) we will see people recoup missing limbs. It may just be a robotic hand controlled like a normal hand, or a hand like Luke Skywalker that is indistinguishable from real limbs, or possibly limbs grown in a lab that have been transplanted.

 

I've had this conversation with my friend over and over, I would GIVE my arm for a robot arm, if that robot arm could feel and be controlled like my natural arm. I wouldn't worry about anything, because I have a robot arm.

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Better get on the glucosamine supplements there, Ethan. I've got dodgy knees in the family too, if I go running too much they get real creaky.

 

Then after I started taking glucosamine, the creakiness and any cracking/discomfort literally disappeared overnight.

 

You have to keep taking it, daily, forever, but it seriously cancels any problems out.

 

I endorse this product

Edited by SomTervo
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Well from my understanding is that the penis is basically a muscular tube. We have been making progress in muscle reconstruction for a small amount of time, so I think they applied what they learned to the penis.

 

It's more of a sponge, there's no muscle inside the penis just lots and lots of chambers to fill with blood.

 

 

penis-anatomy-364x359.jpg

 

(Biology book penis)

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